The upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections have turned into a fierce contest between the ruling Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena alliance) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Key issues like Hindutva, caste dynamics, farmers’ grievances, and economic challenges are likely to shape the electoral outcome.
Hindutva: A Divisive Campaign
The BJP’s campaign, centered on uniting Hindus through Hindutva, has drawn mixed reactions. While attempts to consolidate Hindu votes by bridging caste divides remain central, critics argue this approach risks alienating communities.
In Nagpur, real estate agent Sangeeta Ramteke observed, “When Hindutva dominates everything, it backfires, creating divides instead of unity.” Similarly, Dalit voters have expressed concern over the communal rhetoric overshadowing constitutional values.
Dalit and Maratha Reservation: A Political Hotbed
Dalit voters, constituting 10.8% of the state population, are crucial in 54 reserved constituencies. Schemes like Stand Up India and Mudra loans under Modi’s government have received positive feedback. However, concerns persist about caste-based politics.
The Maratha reservation issue has further complicated matters. Activist Manoj Jarange Patil’s opposition to BJP policies on this issue has fueled discontent in Marathwada, where 46 seats are at stake.
Farmers’ Unrest: Persistent Challenges
Agriculture remains a contentious issue, especially in Vidarbha and Marathwada. Farmers voiced frustration over low crop prices, with soyabean and cotton fetching rates below the Minimum Support Price (MSP). Farmer leader Vijay Jawandia remarked, “Without fair crop prices, farmers remain trapped in debt cycles.”
Muslim Consolidation: A Game-Changer
Muslims, who make up 11.56% of the state’s population, are pivotal in 38 constituencies. Their opposition to the BJP remains strong, with Congress promising reservations for Muslims in its manifesto. BJP state chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule countered, claiming the party’s inclusive policies have benefitted the community.
Ladki Bahin Yojna: Women’s Votes in Focus
The Shinde government’s Ladki Bahin Yojna, which offers ₹1,500 monthly allowances to women, has benefitted 2.22 crore women voters. However, rural women like Sangeeta Sayamkar expressed mixed reactions, citing losses in agriculture despite the scheme’s payouts.
Economic Challenges: Inflation and GST
Inflation and GST continue to resonate as major issues. Both rural and urban voters have voiced concerns about rising prices and economic hardships.
The Battle for Numbers
The Assembly polls will determine whether Mahayuti retains its position or if MVA consolidates its gains from the Lok Sabha elections, where it won 31 out of 48 seats. With a history of BJP leading the Assembly polls in 2014 and 2019, all eyes are on the party’s ability to secure a third-term victory.
As NCP (SP) leader Sharad Pawar predicts MVA will comfortably cross the halfway mark, BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis remains confident of Mahayuti forming the government. The target is the magic number of 145 out of 288 seats.
Rebels and independents, a minor factor in the Lok Sabha polls, could influence outcomes in 30 to 35 constituencies this time. The election will also test the strength of divided factions within Shiv Sena and NCP.
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