Although the economist Thomas Malthus never specifically addressed India in his theories, his emphasis on population control has left an indelible mark on global policy discussions, including in India. Recently, Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu, has called for a shift in focus from “population control” to “population management,” highlighting the nuanced demographic challenges the country faces.
Malthus’ theory proposed that population growth would eventually outstrip food production, leading to shortages and crises. This fear led to extreme measures in some countries, such as China’s one-child policy. However, critics argue that Malthus underestimated the power of technological advancements in agriculture, which have enabled nations to sustain growing populations. India, for example, has experienced a remarkable transformation since the 1960s. In 1965, Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri urged citizens to sacrifice a meal weekly due to food shortages; today, India feeds over 80 crore people through PMGKAY and has become a major agricultural exporter, defying Malthusian predictions.
Countries like Japan, South Korea, and China have previously harnessed their youthful populations as a demographic dividend, becoming economic and technological powerhouses. Today, India is on the cusp of a similar opportunity, with a median age of 28.4 years and a projected one billion working-age individuals by 2030. According to the Reserve Bank of India, this demographic window will remain open until 2055 due to declining fertility rates, making it crucial for the nation to act swiftly.
Yet, sustaining India’s demographic advantage requires maintaining a healthy fertility rate. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for a stable population is 2.1, but India’s current TFR has dipped to 2.0. In southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, the TFR is even lower at 1.7, with Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana at around 1.8. In contrast, northern states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have higher TFRs of 3.0 and 2.4, respectively. Andhra Pradesh, which reached replacement-level fertility in 2004, has since seen a significant move toward negative population growth.
These demographic shifts have political and economic implications, especially for states that effectively controlled population growth in the 1990s. Politically, the impending 2026 delimitation could reduce the parliamentary influence of states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. While Uttar Pradesh, with 80 Lok Sabha seats, may gain up to 40 more constituencies, southern states may see only minimal gains, potentially skewing political power in favor of northern regions.
Economically, population size is critical in determining tax revenue distribution between the central and state governments. Data from the Finance Ministry reveals that northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar receive 17.9% and 10% of allocations, respectively, while southern states receive less than 4%. This imbalance underscores the importance of a balanced approach to population policy.
The risks of an ageing society are evident from global examples. Japan’s population is projected to halve by 2100, leading to labor shortages and economic stagnation. An IMF study estimated Japan’s economic growth would decline by 0.8% annually over the next four decades due to demographic factors alone. Similarly, China’s shift from a one-child to a three-child policy reflects concerns over its ageing population, echoing Japan’s struggles.
For India, the challenges are magnified, particularly with a large elderly population reliant on government assistance. A rapidly declining TFR in states like Andhra Pradesh may result in a crisis if not addressed promptly. Policymakers must now consider strategies to boost fertility rates, ensuring India’s demographic dividend lasts longer.
In response to these trends, CM Naidu has shown foresight by repealing a three-decade-old law that barred individuals with more than two children from running in local elections. This move, along with the call for population management over control, reflects a pragmatic and long-term perspective on demographic issues. Naidu’s leadership offers a template for other Indian states grappling with similar challenges, potentially paving the way for sustainable population policies that balance growth with well-being.
Leave a Reply