China approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. With a planned capacity of 60,000 MW, this project will generate three times the electricity of the current largest hydro project, the Three Gorges Dam.
The Yarlung Tsangpo, known as the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh and the Brahmaputra in Assam, flows into Bangladesh before reaching the Bay of Bengal. The massive infrastructure project in Tibet could disrupt the lives of millions in these regions and impact the delicate ecology.
Expert Views on the Project’s Risks
Ashok Kantha, a former Indian Ambassador to China, called the project a “very risky” and “irresponsible” endeavor. He raised concerns over the large reservoir planned for the project, citing potential dangers to the region. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has repeatedly voiced concerns to China, stressing the need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries to avoid harming the Brahmaputra’s ecosystem.
Y Nithiyanandam, a professor at the Takshashila Institution, pointed out that the dam’s location, at the “Great Bend” in Tibet, indicates that the project is nearing completion. Recent activities, such as the development of smaller dams and land use changes, suggest significant progress.
China’s Motivation: Clean Energy Goals
China claims that the mega dam will support its transition to cleaner energy and help achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060. The steep descent of the Yarlung Tsangpo River makes it an ideal location for hydroelectric generation. However, large-scale projects like the Three Gorges Dam have shown environmental risks, including potential earthquakes and displacement of people.
India’s Concerns: Water Flow and Ecological Impact
India is particularly worried about the potential impact of the dam on water flow, which could affect agriculture and biodiversity downstream. The Brahmaputra River system depends largely on water from Tibet, and interruptions could harm India’s economy and environment. Additionally, the region’s vulnerability to earthquakes raises concerns about dam safety.
Coordination between India and China is crucial to avoid disasters, as seen during the 2004 Parechu Lake incident. India has urged China to cooperate more effectively, especially in sharing data and ensuring transparency.
Limited Cooperation Between India and China
India and China have some agreements in place regarding transboundary rivers, but these frameworks have been limited in scope. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the Brahmaputra expired in 2023, and the renewal process is ongoing. There have also been interruptions in data sharing due to political tensions, such as the Doklam crisis and the Ladakh standoff.
India’s Options Moving Forward
Kantha emphasized the need for India to raise its concerns more forcefully. He warned that China’s claim that the Tsangpo project would have no negative effects on downstream areas was “completely wrong.” India must engage in honest dialogue with China to prevent the project from becoming a fait accompli. Water security, according to Kantha, should be a central issue in India-China relations.
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